2021 Detroit Red Wings Thread of Acceptance

[Grand Moff Larkin]

Optimistic roster preview time!

Dylan Larkin: They name him captain already, he averages around a point-per-game, he's better in the shootouts
Anthony Mantha: No fights, stays healthy, dominates for longer stretches without major lulls (which tend to be when he's coming back from injury), paces for 30-40 goals in a regular-length season
Tyler Bertuzzi: No dumb penalties or suspensions, remains productive on the top line, maybe slides around a bit and proves he can help over players
Robby Fabbri: Better defensively, helps anchor the second line, paces for 50 points in a regular regular season
Bobby Ryan: The most productive of the 2nd/3rd line wingers, maybe plays with Larkin some, gets dealt to a contender at the deadline
Filip Zadina: Comes in hot, has some level of an offensive breakout year. Maybe .75 points per game? Pro-rated 20-30 goal season?
Vladislav Namestikov: Helps on the power play, similar point production to Fabbri
Sam Gagner: Good on the PP, slides between 2nd and 3rd lines, maybe half a point per game
Valteri Filppula: Enough of a resurgence to merit some team trading a 3rd or 4th for him at the deadline
Darren Helm: Stays healthy, scores a little more, gets traded to a contender at the deadline
Frans Nielsen: Has some flashes, splits time between the bottom six and the press box / taxi squad
Luke Glendening: Logs hard minutes on the PK, scores some nice backhand goals, either goes to a team I like at the deadline or re-signs to a reasonable deal to be a veteran presence / Good Michigan Boy in the future
Taro Hirose: Stays in the mix for the 3rd line, ends up producing more than expected
Givani Smith: Earns a good number of games on the 4th line, echoes early career Abdelkader, throws a lot of hits
Evgeny Svechnikov: Stays healthy (he hurt his arm in training camp today), shows 1st round skill beyond his likely bottom six deployment
Michael Rasmussen: Becomes the 3rd line center over Filppula or Nielsen, strong defensively, contributes some offense on the power play
Mattias Brome: Pleasant surprise on 3rd/4th line, contributes more offensively than some of his counterparts there
Adam Erne: Gets traded for a 4th rounder, I don't know, I'm tired of watching him

Filip Hronek: Gets more help, doesn't get worn out halfway through the season, half a point per game, solidifies power play, basically takes a big step from behind a top pair D out of necessity to a top pair D by performance
Danny Dekeyser: Stays healthy, stays healthy, stays healthy, eases the load on Hronek, contributes some offensively
Patrik Nemeth: Solid defensive play / PK, gets traded at the deadline
Troy Stetcher: Better at moving the puck / escaping trouble than most of the other Wings D, helps transition offense
Marc Staal: Enough of a resurgence to get traded at the deadline, doesn't play all of the games
Jon Merrill: Stabilizes the third pair when he's in the lineup
Dennis Cholowski: Very optimistically he earns a regular spot in the lineup, becomes one of their PP d-men, gets paired with a solid defensive D who helps him with coverage, doesn't crash out halfway into the season
Alex Biega: Plays occasionally, does well enough when he's in

Jonathan Bernier: Plays like he did for the last 2/3 of last season, but gets more support
Thomas Greiss: Plays like Bernier did for the last 2/3 of last season, keeps Wings in games unlike Jimmy Howard

[captain]

Optimistic indeed!

[Grand Moff Larkin]

My ideal lines would be something like

Mantha / Larkin / Lil Tuzz
Zadina / Namestikov / Ryan
Fabbri / Rasmussen / Gagner or Hirose
Svechnikov or Smith / Glendening / Helm or Brome

with Filppula, Nielsen, and Erne sliding in when necessary.

Hronek / Dekeyser
Stetcher / Nemeth
Cholowski / Merrill

with Staal and Biega rotating with the bottom pair.

I'm trying to prepare myself to see far more of the following players than I'd like: Filppula, Erne, Nielsen, Staal
And far less of the following players than I'd like: Rasmussen, Cholowski, Smith, Hirose, Svechnikov (if healthy)

That's essentially a reliance on decaying veteran bodies (or in Erne's case, a guy who just hasn't shown me much) over letting the young players develop. They're going to be bad either way, I think this is probably Cholowski's last shot and I'd rather him get it in earnest (especially since he's the second-best power play D after Hronek, and I'd rather not overburden Dekeyser) and Svechnikov's last shot (he was drafted in 2015 and has 20 total NHL games due to his injuries [most of the other first-rounders from that year have 200+], I don't think Yzerman should be too attached to a player he didn't draft). HF Wings is very down on Rasmussen but I think he can play a role moving forward, they just need to let him at it.

There's no great option for 2C and I think the middle six will be unsettled for most of the season if they don't figure out line chemistry early. I wouldn't be surprised if Ryan, Fabbri, and Zadina all play with Larkin at some point during the season.

I'm curious just how different this team looks 1. after the deadline 2. at the beginning of next year. The following guys have expiring contracts: Helm, Filppula, Glendening, Ryan, Gagner, Erne (RFA), Staal, Nemeth, Merrill, Biega. If I had to bet on it, I think these guys will be gone at the deadline: Helm, Glendening, Filppula, Ryan, Nemeth. It depends a lot on how they play this season, but I could see Glendening, Ryan, Gagner, Merrill, and Biega coming back on short deals (less likely on Glendening and Ryan). That's still five spots opening up, and I'd guess it'll be 6-7. That's a lot of turnover, after there was a lot of turnover this offseason.

I don't think Yzerman's going to be as sentimental with roster moves as Holland was. Darren Helm's almost 34, he's not getting any faster or finishing any better. Luke Glendening will turn 32 midway through the season, he's a solid veteran presence but it's entirely possible that Chase Pearson could do his job better at this point. Filppula played some tough minutes but if he isn't washed up now, he will be by the end of the year. Nielsen is in "It would be great if he could LTIR" territory and not just because of his salary. He just can't produce anymore. The Wings will have three guys -- Glendening, Filppula, and Nielsen -- who would ideally be a 4th line center, and only one of them is really suited to it.

[Grand Moff Larkin]

Optimistic indeed!

Yeah those are the best case scenarios, the actuality for half the forwards is something like "It's March and they haven't scored a goal yet, despite getting a regular shift"

[Grand Moff Larkin]

I don't know who Seattle will take, since it's not going to be anyone particularly good. But 21-22:

Mantha / Larkin / Lil Tuzz
Fabbri / Namestikov* / Zadina
Veleno / Rasmussen / Raymond
Smith / Pearson / Brome

Hronek / Dekeyser
Seider / Stetcher
Cholowski / Lindstrom

*My best guess on who Seattle will take, so uh hm

There are still big holes in that lineup, and I don't know if Raymond will be ready right away (maybe he needs an AHL season). Do they sign a 2nd pair D to play with Seider? Are Cholowski and Lindstrom still around? Is their 2021 first-rounder ready to play on D (Owen Power?) or C (Matthew Berniers?). But overall that lineup sifts out a lot of guys I don't want to see anymore.

[Grand Moff Larkin]

This is the last year of Stephen Weiss's buyout! I don't like seeing his name!

[captain]

I like the top line just fine but I don't think that second line is going to be as productive as you're hoping. I mean, I would love to see them rip it up but I would not be surprised to see those guys at a combined -80 on the season

[Rowsdower]

Who negotiate Stephen Weiss contract? Ken Holland drycleaner?

[Grand Moff Larkin]

I like the top line just fine but I don't think that second line is going to be as productive as you're hoping. I mean, I would love to see them rip it up but I would not be surprised to see those guys at a combined -80 on the season

Oh I'm fairly sure it'll be a mess, regardless of how it sifts out. Right now it seems like

Ryan / Fabbri / Zadina
Namestikov / Filppula / Gagner

are the middle six, and as much as the stat doesn't help, Fabbri was -29 with the Wings last year and Filppula was -42. There's no logical way to sort those players (and whoever else falls into that mix) that is remotely comforting. Like that second line might score some goals, but Fabbri was... not great defensively on the wing, and I don't think the experiment of having him at center will last long. So maybe they score some goals, but they're going to allow a lot more. And the third line is better defensively in theory, but Filppula had 21 points last year primarily getting second-line deployment, Gagner hasn't been particularly productive since Columbus in 16-17, and Namestikov will produce more when he's playing with better players, which is not the case in this scenario. So I don't think they're going to be that good offensively or particularly stifling defensively.

Two silvers lining, though. First, the Wings' D should be at least somewhat better without Daley / Bowey / Ericsson in the mix, even if Staal's essentially at their level. Having Dekeyser back is significant and Stetcher should be able to escape trouble at least. The bottom pair's still a mystery but could be better. Between those switches and Greiss coming in for Howard, I think the Wings' forwards should get some help this year.

Second, I mentioned this in an Athletic comment the other day, but man I'll be happy if there's even an inkling that something good might happen when the Larkin line (and theoretically Zadina) are off the ice. I don't think the good happenings will outweigh the bad with that middle six, not by any degree, but again, this is what the Wings had last year:

Filppula: 70 games, 21 points
Helm: 68 games, 16 points
Nielsen: 60 games, 9 points
Glendening: 60 games, 9 points
Erne: 56 games, 5 points
Ehn: 54 games, 4 points
Abdelkader: 49 games, 3 points
Perlini: 39 games, 4 points

So many guys / games played, so few points. Even if Ryan / Namestikov get 25 points, that's huge.

[Grand Moff Larkin]

I know they're still going to be one of the worst three or four teams in the league (Chicago, Los Angeles, and Ottawa are the competition), it's just whether they're historically bad again or just regular bad. Last year their team goal differential was -122, which was 70 goals worse than Ottawa's at -52. The best goal differential was Boston's +53. They were blown out of so many games.

My reasonable optimism is that they're still losing, but it's closer, like 4-3 instead of 5-1. That's watchable at least.

[patrick cokane]

you’re gonna love troy stetcher

[Grand Moff Larkin]

He's the guy I'm most interested to see in the lineup. I have a pretty good idea of how Ryan / Namestikov / Staal / Merrill will play but I think Stetcher has the biggest chance of surpassing my (non-optimistic) expectations for him.

Also he seems like a good dude so that's always welcome. Yzerman seemed to focus on getting good dudes this offseason in addition to solid / short contracts.

[Alexei Ca$hin]

You're going to love Bobby Ryan too. Does all the little things right, always makes his linemates better. Just doesn't have the offense any more to be worth his (former) contract.

[Grand Moff Larkin]

I really enjoyed Bobby Ryan's interview on The Full 60, he's definitely an improvement on a fairly bland Wings roster in terms of quotes. I think he can be solid offensively, just trying not to get too attached because I think he'll get moved at the deadline.

[Rowsdower]

Totally forgot Staal was on the Wings.

[Grand Moff Larkin]

I realized I'd kind of forgotten Lindstrom in my initial roster overview, I wasn't entirely sure if he was staying in Sweden like Veleno and Seider, but he's now in camp, playing with the "extra" squad (basically the Wings have the most likely eighteen guys to make the roster on one "team" and the rest of them on another).

He wasn't exactly getting rave reviews from his play in the Allsvensken so I think he'll start in Grand Rapids and come up when Dekeyser gets hurt.

He doesn't have a particularly high ceiling -- competent third-pairing D, essentially -- so I'm not as invested in his training camp outcome as Cholowski's. But I'm sure he'll get NHL games in this year and look fine in them. Might not help him to no longer be compared to Ericsson / Daley / Bowey, though.

[Grand Moff Larkin]

Totally forgot Staal was on the Wings.

So far in camp it seems like he's going to be on the second or third pairing which uh is not what I'd prefer!

[Rowsdower]

Well, it's good for those lottery odds.

[Alexei Ca$hin]

And Veleno is committed to stay in Europe for the entire season, right?

[Grand Moff Larkin]

And Veleno is committed to stay in Europe for the entire season, right?

Yeah, Veleno and Seider are committed to the full SHL season, and Seider's team (Rogle) is at the top of the league. Veleno's on Malmo, which is pretty far back of the playoffs. I think Veleno goes to Grand Rapids when the SHL is done, maybe gets a few NHL games in, whereas Seider will definitely get the seven-game NHL tryout if he has time for it.