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 Post subject: Thee Official 2019 Draft Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:27 am 
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The most important day of the year? Definitely!


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:30 am 
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2019 has been relentlessly brutal for Ol' NA so there's little reason to think that the draft lottery will be any different.

Here are Thee Officialle Lotteree Odds

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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:37 am 
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I'm going to power rank all of these dumb teams with an entirely unbiased point system. Reverse points for season finish, 1-10 points for whether they deserve to J'accuse! and whether they need J'accuse!

Montreal Canadiens
Points for season placement: 1
Do they deserve it? Nope! They moved up in the lottery last year and got Kotkaniemi. They haven't been consistently bad because of Carey Price and nearly made the playoffs this year. 1/10.
Do they need it? Insomuch as their top forwards are Gallagher, Domi, Drouin, and Tatar, sure, they do probably need a gamebreaking forward. But they've gone heavy on centers through the draft / trades, with Kotkaniemi, Poehling, and Suzuki either on the team or coming soon, they at least have options in the pipe. 3/10.
Total points: 5


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:44 am 
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Arizona Coyotes
Points for season placement: 2
Do they deserve it? Yeah, they probably do. Have they ever won a lottery? They moved down two slots in 2018, three slots in 2017, and missed on the Matthews and McDavid drafts. But they also almost made the playoffs this year, although I'm not sure exactly how that happened. One important note: even if they win the lottery, I wouldn't put it past John Chayka to galaxy brain the selection. 7/10.
Do they need it? Yeah, they do. They have a handful of good forwards and solid depth, but Keller was their leading scorer with 47 points. Brad Richardson tied for the team lead in goals. Maybe Hayton ends up as a 1C, but I don't know about that. 9/10.
Total points: 18


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:48 am 
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Florida Panthers
Points for season placement: 3
Do they deserve it? I don't know? The Panthers are an enigma to me, they should be better every year, but almost every year they find some way to be shitty. This year goaltending and a thin blueline did them in. But they have Barkov, who would be a superstar in most other markets, Huberdeau, and a bunch of solid prospects. 2/10
Do they need it? Not really? They have their top center, they have their second-line center, they have a bunch of forward prospects. What they need is a top starting goaltender and a top-four defenseman, neither of which they're going to get in the lottery. 2/10
Total points: 7


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:53 am 
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Chicago Blackhawks
Points for season placement: 4
Do they deserve it? LOL NO. They won three Cups in large part due to getting Toews and Kane with top three picks. They stink now because some of their core got old, Kane/Toews' contracts forced them to get rid of some depth, Bowman made some weird-ass trades like Panarin for Saad, and Crawford's brain is slush. Welcome to the post-contending stink, enjoy your stay. 1/10.
Do they need it? On one hand, they could use another top forward on an ELC. On the other hand, they brought Dylan Strome back to life and DeBrincat is a top scorer. So they have two good lines again and went on a decent run in the second half of the year. 2/10
Total points: 7


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:03 am 
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Minnesota Wild
Points for season placement: 5
Do they deserve it? They've been middling for a while, finally dropping out of the playoffs. Judging by their "trade guys for younger and/or shittier guys" trades, they may be committed to that path now. But they're just starting on it, and hitting a grand slam in your first at-bat seems like a cheat. 2/10
Do they need it? Is Ryan Donato their best forward? Will Kirill Kaprizov ever come over? Is Zach Parise held together by duct tape? Did Mikko Koivu turn to dust in The Snap? The Wild are a vacuum of excitement. 10/10
Total points: 17


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:08 am 
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Philadelphia Flyers
Points for season placement: 6
Do they deserve it? They moved up eleven spots in the 2017 lottery, having 2.4% odds at that position. It's not my fault they drafted Nolan Patrick instead of Pettersson. 1/10
Do they need it? A little? They have a ridiculously stacked pool of prospects / young guys at all positions, but Patrick doesn't seem to be a star-quality player and I don't know if Farabee / Frost are going to top out higher than that. Giroux had another great year but at some point he's going to decline, maybe Couturier will take over then. 2/10
Total points: 9


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:13 am 
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Vancouver Canucks
Points for season placement: 7
Do they deserve it? They routinely get jobbed in lotteries, so in that sense, they absolutely deserve to move up for once. But I think they're pretty happy with getting Pettersson instead of Hischier or Patrick in 2017, and Hughes in 2018. 5/10
Do they need it? They're starting build a good, young core -- Pettersson, Horvat, Boeser, Hughes, Markstrom/Demko -- and could definitely use either another strong forward or particularly a top-pair defensive prospect to add to that core. But there's some excitement at least. 6/10
Total points: 18


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:36 am 
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Anaheim Ducks
Points for season placement: 8
Do they deserve it? They've been a playoff team for a while, boned themselves with the expansion draft, watched as some of their core got old and ineffective (Perry / Kesler), and retained Carlyle for too long. They're like the Blackhawks without as much success, or the Wild with slightly more success. 2/10
Do they need it? Terry and Steel appear to be future top-six forwards, they have Comtois and some other guys on the way, they always seem to have more defensemen on the way, and Gibson was the Vezina frontunner for the first half of the season, so it's not like they're in dire straits (or the band Dire Straits). But they could use a top-line forward to be the next guy after Getzkey retires to promote hair replacement products. 4/10
Total points: 14


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:40 am 
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Edmonton
Points for season placement: 9
Do they deserve it? They won the McDavid lottery and have spent the time since trading dollar bills for forty-five cents in loose change, then trading that change for buttons, then trading those buttons for handfuls of dirt. No. 1/10
Do they need it? They have three good forwards. Two of them scored over 100 points this year. They have no cap space. Yes, they could really use a top forward on an ELC. But they have Connor Fucking McDavid and 30 other teams don't, so what they need is competent management, and I don't think Steve Yzerman is draft-eligible this year. 4/10
Total points: 14


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:46 am 
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NY Rangers
Points for season placement: 10
Do they deserve it? Kind of? They've been bad but not outright terrible the last two years. They've traded older players for picks or prospects, but still have good-enough goaltending not to totally stink. I feel like the middle of the pack is where they should be drafting. The league wouldn't mind J'accuse! on Broadway but eh who cares. 3/10
Do they need it? Zibanejad quietly had a 1B center season, with 30 goals and 74 points. They have Kravtstov in their prospect pool, Chytil and Andersson were both first-rounders who might pan out. A top-line forward would definitely help their cause. 6/10
Total points: 19


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:50 am 
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Buffalo Sabres
Points for season placement: 11
Do they deserve it? They just won the lottery for Dahlin, who is the top-rated defensive prospect in ages. They lost the McDavid lottery but got Eichel. No. 1/10
Do they need it? Despite an inexplicable winning streak earlier in the year, which caused their dumb fans to puff out their chests with stupid smugness, they are still fuckin' terrible. The O'Reilly trade was a disaster. They have some of the pieces in place but they always need more. But they at least have Eichel / Dahlin, with Skinner / Reinhart / Middlestadt / Ristolainen etc. They're getting better, at least. 3/10
Total points: 15


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:03 am 
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Detroit Red Wings:
Points for season placement: 12
Do they deserve it? They've moved down in both lotteries they've been in, even though I suspect they would've taken Zadina 3-5th last year. Their best forwards are Larkin (mid-1st), Mantha (mid-1st), AA (4th), and Lil Tuzz (2nd, and a perceived reach then). They played inexplicably well in the last few weeks and killed their lottery odds, which by Down Goes Brown standards should win them the lottery. They've paid their lottery dues at this point. 8/10
Do they need it: They're gradually filling out a top-six (add Zadina and Hirose to the four mentioned) and Larkin keeps challenging the perception of his ceiling, but they could really use a top-line center, or at least another high-level 1B guy. AA is ideally a wing. Having Frans Nielsen center the second-line is painful. 7/10
Total points: 27


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:11 pm 
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NJ Devils
Points for season placement: 13
Do they deserve it? They won the 2017 lottery, moving up four spots to take Hischier. They were inexplicably good in 17-18. No. 1/10
Do they need it? Taylor Hall was out a lot of the year and without him, their team is fucking dire. Hischier is fine, Palmieri / Zajac / Bratt are good second-line guys, but if Hall's out, there's no excitement at all. Maybe Hall leaves as a free agent. Who knows. It sucks to watch them and aside from Ty Jones they don't have much coming, in part because their drafting hasn't been great (Zacha, McLeod). 8/10
Total points: 22


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:15 pm 
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Los Angeles Kings
Points for season placement: 14
Do they deserve it? They won two Cups, overpaid key pieces for those Cups, made some bad trades, guys got old (Jeff Carter played almost the whole year and had 33 points) didn't develop enough young players to fill in -- in short, see the Chicago Blackhawks above. Welcome to misery, enjoy your stay. 1/10
Do they need it? I mean, Jeff Carter scored 33 points last year. They have Doughty and Kopitar and Quick if he's healthy, but they very much need some fresh blood, and Gabe Villardi appears to be broken. 7/10
Total points: 22


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:22 pm 
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Colorado Avalanche via Ottawa
Points for season placement: 15 (I'll keep this in Ottawa's perspective, the rest will be in Colorado's)
Do they deserve it? I give Sakic a lot of credit/arbitrary points for not rushing to trade Matty Turf and instead holding out for a legit package. In terms of their own team's performance in lotteries, MacKinnon eventually developed into a superstar, Handsome Gave is a solid player, if not quite franchise level, and for the worst-case scenario in the 2017 lottery (going from 1st odds to 4th), they got Makar. I'll split the difference between the two. 5/10
Do they need it? They're a playoff team with help on the way, let's not give them too much sympathy. Buuuuut they clearly need a guy to command the second line, since their insane top line can only carry so much weight. Buuuuut even so, they still made the playoffs. 4/10
Total points: 24


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:24 pm 
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So yeah, if any teams deserve to move up into the top three, it's Detroit, Vancouver, Minnesota, and Arizona.

The teams that deserve it the least are Montreal, Chicago, and Florida, so those are the teams that will win the lottery. Congratulations!


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2019 2:06 pm 
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Can't wait for the Avs to draft fourth.


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:32 pm 
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The Red Wings have a 2.8% chance of staying at fourth, which seems insanely low.

68% chance they drop to 5/6/7, with 6 being the most likely spot.


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:36 pm 
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I've mostly accepted that Edmonton is going to win the lottery, but the more I look at the percentages the more I think the NHL over-corrected for tanking. That applies to Colorado's pick, too, if you're the worst team in the league or you made a smart trade with the worst team in the league, 18.5% is super low for staying #1 in the draft.


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:47 pm 
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Yeah, that's a ridiculous percentage. I'm convinced that the Rangers, Canadiens, or Kings are getting the #1 pick.


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:54 pm 
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Like let's say the worst team has a 33% chance of the top pick. That's still not great. I don't think tanking is necessarily worth it with that percentage. But it does recognize the difference between a team that has bottomed-out and one that might have just had an off-year.


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2019 4:03 pm 
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I try not to get wrapped up in conspiracy theories, but I think from a league-wide benefit perspective, NY / LA / Chicago would be preferred. But I think there's a marketing argument for any of the 15 teams getting better, whether it saves a market (Arizona), brings one back into relevance (Detroit, Buffalo, Montreal), helps keep a recent draw in fans' minds (LA, NYR, Chicago), brings brothers together (Vancouver), etc.

The Athletic's Wings beat writer did a piece last week about how the team's unspoken hurdle in their rebuild is that their division isn't a cakewalk -- Tampa's going to be great, Boston should be solid for a while, Toronto should theoretically keep improving -- and I realized that if Florida, Buffalo, or Montreal wins the lottery, it's a double whammy for Detroit. Not only will the Wings not get J'accuse! or Kaako, but one of the teams they're trying to pass would, making their ascent even harder.


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 Post subject: Re: Thee Official 2019 Draft Lottery Extravaganza
PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2019 4:07 pm 
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Ottawa's really the only team in the Wings' division that I'm comfortable saying will be worse than Detroit next year. If Buffalo has competent coaching, they could make a push. Florida already got above-competent coaching and could add Panarin / Bobrovsky in free agency, in which case they'll safely be a playoff team. Ryan Poehling will score 180 goals next year and deport one immigrant for each goal, so the Habs might actually make the playoffs. I think the Wings will be incrementally better, but they honestly need Hughes or Kaapo to keep up.


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